SWEDISH SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES NETWORK

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Indian Foreign Policy and the West
Report from the Second India Forum, held in Stockholm 1–2 october 2010

By Staffan Lindberg
Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Sociology, Lund University
& Former Director, Swedish South Asian Studies Network (SASNET)

The first and inaugural India Forum was organised by GMF in London, UK on 20–21 February 2010. It focused not only on discussions on relations between Europe, the United States and India, but sessions also included conversations on reforming international architecture, the rise of Asia, the unfolding situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the future of the Indian economy, maritime security and counter-terrorism. The India Forum attempts to convene high-profile policymakers, intellectuals, journalists, and business people from Europe, the United States, and India to facilitate cooperation and coordination through informal discussions. More information about the February 2010 India Forum.

The second biannual India Forum organised by the German Marshal Fund of the United States (GMF) took place in Stockholm on 1–2 October 2010. The forum, which aims at discussing relations between the United States, Europe, and India, focussed on ‘India’s evolving foreign policy, the economic and commercial relationships between India and the West, common challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the potential for convergence on climate and energy policy, and response to a more assertive China.’ It was co-organised by the Legatum Institute and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Government of Sweden.

There were some 60 participants, with the strongest representation coming from India. They included top diplomats, foreign policy advisers, members of parliament, and journalists. The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also well represented. A number of foreign policy advisors, NGO workers, journalists, and a few politicians from the US and Europe also participated. Thus, the forum was mainly concerned with how the Indian policy elite understands and thinks about the emerging foreign policy of India.

New phase of foreign policy

With its strong economic growth in the past decades, India is now moving into a new phase of foreign policy. In many ways it is on the way to becoming a big global power – something yet to be realised. Soon India will be among the economically most powerful countries in the world, and maybe second only to China. It also has a very strong military capacity and it appears that these attributes will translate into permanent membership in the Security Council in the near future. As might be expected, this has awakened strong feelings of national pride and the desire for international recognition.

On the other hand, one can hardly say that all is well with the country. With more than 300 million inhabitants in absolute poverty and severe problems with the environment, India faces grave social issues. It was refreshing to hear Indian representatives at the conference express deep concern and engagement in these matters. Most of them welcomed the opportunity for greater cooperation with the EU and its member countries. For example, with 50 percent of the subcontinent’s energy supply coming from coal alone, clean technology such as Europe could supply is badly needed. In fact, it was emphasized how numerous the business opportunities are at present in the Indian market. ‘If only Europeans could avoid always harping about various social issues,’ as someone expressed it, ‘and relax labour immigration and visa laws!’

The days of allying with the Russians are over. The US has been India’s foremost partner since the early 2000s when agreements on nuclear power were signed under the Bush administration.

However, India still acts as a voice for the developing countries in the World Trade Organisation and in discussions on climate change. The BRIC nations (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) increasingly dominate these international forums. In such engagements, Indians see a great scope for cooperation with the EU, viewing themselves as go-betweens and mediators.

The Indian image and self-understanding is still one of adhering to a peaceful foreign policy based on humanistic and democratic values, with emphasis on the rights of all nations to autonomy and sovereignty. This view is sustained despite more complex and conflict-ridden relations with neighbouring South Asian countries, who might think less fondly of India as an intervening big brother.

India shares its universalistic values with the West, so that on the ideological level it is easy to see the close identification with Europe and the EU. More problematical is the fact that the EU has no coherent foreign policy in relation to India – if it has one at all. In reality India expects US support in its relations with Pakistan and with China, in both cases feeling itself threatened in various ways.

Negotiations not at all discussed

Relations with Pakistan have been defined by the Kashmir and Afghanistan conflicts and the immediate threat of Islamist terrorism in India. There are also fears of losing access to oil and other energy resources in Central Asia. If the US and its allies realise that they cannot win the war on terror in Afghanistan and subsequently withdraw, India is left to deal with the problems on its own. In the emerging endgame it is clear that India will have to negotiate a settlement with Pakistan over Kashmir, but such a possibility was not at all discussed at the forum in Stockholm, although it presents itself as a plausible scenario.

With regard to Pakistan and Afghanistan, there appears to be a blind spot in the foreign policy thinking of both India and the West. The major military conflict at present is that between the later two entities and the Islamic world. They are engaged in an all-out confrontation about the control of land, energy, and political modernisation, affecting not just Afghanistan but Israel-Palestine, Iraq, Iran, the whole of Central Asia, and Kashmir as well. Few seem to realise that these conflicts must be dealt with together. There is an urgent need for trustworthy security commitments for the Israelis and the Muslims in their respective countries. Sustainable peace negotiations can only be established on such a basis. Without a peace process there can also be no foreseeable end to the cultural conflicts and terrorism in the West and in India.

Problematic relations with China

Meanwhile, the Chinese and the Russians are proceeding to build their own trading and investments links with the Middle East and Central Asia. The main infrastructure for this is the construction of new pipelines for oil and gas. India’s relations with China are problematic, given the new Chinese nationalistic assertiveness (a result of its economic and military capacity) and its very effective foreign policy. India rightly feels threatened by the increased Chinese presence in Pakistan, which has seen an influx of military weapons and troops creating new infrastructure in the Pakistani part of Kashmir. There are also concerns about heightened Chinese interest in areas that border on India (like Arunachal Pradesh), and in the Indian Ocean, as well as Chinese river management operations that could adversely affect water supply in Indian rivers.

Whether the US (or, for that matter, the EU) is a reliable partner in confronting Chinese assertiveness is open to question. Both are heavily invested in Chinese manufacturing. The US also depends on loans by China to keep its over-consumption economy afloat. Perhaps Japan could be an ally of the West in this matter, but Japan is also very dependent on Chinese factory production and at the same time absorbed by its own economic problems.

In the end, it seems that India will to have to face China more or less alone. The ‘weapon’ that a waiting India may have to use is doing more business with China, thus creating greater interdependence and economic integration that will make confrontation less and less likely. In this effort, increased economic and scientific ties between India, the US, the EU, and the rest of the globe would help create stability in a multipolar world.

Lund, October 22, 2010                     
Staffan Lindberg