Ajit Roy Hope for peace in Kashmir in spite of broken negotiations Calcutta, August 15, 2000 The past weeks witnessed many striking political developments in India demanding notice and analysis. But my allotted space will not permit their adequate coverage, even if I exceeded my quota somewhat, as I have been doing so often. To note some of these developments somewhat haphazardly: First, decisive setbacks for the West Bengal Left Front (LF); then the notorious sandalwood smuggler Veerappan’s daring abduction of the Karnataka celluloid hero, Rajkumar; next, the Maharashtra government’s courageous decision to haul the Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray to court on criminal charges and its repercussions in New Delhi, involving the three presiding deities of Law, the Chief Justice, the Union Law Minister, and the Union Government’s Attorney-General, and then legislation for the formation of three separate States of Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh. Developments relating to Kashmir, however, eclipsed them all, to grab the public attention in India and abroad. Attack on Left Front The defeat by a margin of about 60,000 votes of an eminent Left Front parliamentarian in the Panskura seat, held by the CPI for 15 years, by Trinamul Congress (TMC) candidate, a faceless retired bureaucrat, followed soon by the installation of another TMC candidate, a new acquisition by Mamata and wellknown for his record of musclemanship, as the mayor of Calcutta, are portentous enough for West Bengal State Assembly elections less than a year away. More portentous, however, are points scored in violent confrontations and political propaganda, backed by impressive mass mobilisations, by the TMC, led by the railway minister herself from the front, under the benevolent gaze of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government at the Centre. As mentioned in my last report, with the main opposition force, the Congress, very much downsized today, if the next important opposition force, the LF, is worsted in its main base in West Bengal, then the BJP-led NDA, can look forward to a comfortable pasture, unless, of course, thwarted by internal squabbles. The LF leadership in West Bengal, it seems, has got the message and is visibly unnerved enough to attempt a few defensive steps. But the accumulated muck of 23 years of uninterrupted stay in power will not be easy to wash. Daring abduction by Veerappan The daring, if smoothly accomplished abduction of the Karnataka matinee idol and the demands of Rs 500 million, release from jail of his accomplices and clemency for himself as ransom are not so unusual as is Veerappan’s exercise in populist politicking, raising demands appealing to Tamil chauvinism. A shrewd suspicion cannot be dismissed that he is wistfully looking forward to a parliamentary career for himself, a la the illustrious Phoolan Devi, in the near future. Maharashtra’s Congress-led government’s halfhearted and in the event bungled bid to haul up Mumbai’s notorious Mafiosi boss Bal Thackeray to court on charges of incitement to anti-Muslim riots more than a decade ago, even if prompted by narrow tactical considerations, was almost an historic step. Action taken against Thackeray Thackeray, a self proclaimed admirer of Adolf Hitler, has so far been considered to be above law by, not only himself and his fanatic stormtroopers, but also his political allies and rivals. Nervous this time, his three minions in the NDA government, sought to pressure Vajpayee to scuttle the legal process by hook or by crook by jointly tendering their resignations. Vajpayee refused to accept the resignations and sent his most trusted trouble-shooter, the parliamentary minister, Promod Mahajan, to unsuccessfully persuade the Maharashtra government to relent. Though Thackaray and his gangs threatened to enact another blood bath in retaliation of the legal process the BJP home minister refused to respond to the Maharashtra government’s appeal for additional central police force as standby. Undaunted, the State government arranged special police contingents from three neighbouring States and went ahead with the court case. In the event, however, peace was saved as the government’s plea was dismissed by a junior trial magistrate on questionable ground. The state government has taken the matter to the High Court which has agreed to hear the appeal. Bid to placate Shiv Sena In a bid to partially placate his Shiv Sena allies, without directly infringing the legal, constitutional proprieties, Vajpayee referred to the Supreme Court the question of the Centre’s authority to intervene in the affair relating to Thackeray’s prosecution. The bench with the Chief Justice, which heard the matter, made some critical comments on the Union Government's handling of the affair, particularly its conflicting pleas before the court. At this, the Law Minister, Jethmalani, an eminent lawyer himself, responded with serious aspersions on the Chief Justice as well as the Attorney General, who had held views contrary to the Law Minister’s. Though Vajpayee forced Jethmalani to resign, the muck raised by him vis a vis the two other luminaries, did not fully wash out! Three new states Long years of agitation by the people of the three neglected regions of Uttarakhand on the Himalays, Jharkhand on the Chhotanagpur plateau and the eastern forested plains of Madhya Pradesh are in the process of getting their long cherished dream fulfilled. This has immediately led to free for all among the aspiring politicos of the regions for the positions of power and pelf in the new setup. The new institutions may soon come up but the lot of the long suffering, mainly tribal, populations of these regions, is not likely to improve appreciably. They have not yet thrown up genuinely popular leadership of their own and most of the contestants of the power struggles are old sinners, some of whom have pending cases against them. Kashmir the focal point All this while, Kashmir was the focal point of the sub-continent’s politics. `The nine days’ wonder’, that is the proclaimed two-week cease-fire and the abortive parley at Srinagar proved to be mockeries at the peace aspiration of the `war weary’ people of the Valley, caught in the cross fire of the `liberators’ and the `protectors’. The opening of the abortive parley synchronised with brutal massacres at Srinagar and other parts of the Valley to claim a total of over 100 lives in a single day, including dozens of pilgrims from other States on the way to the ice cave of Amarnath. The formal cancellation of the engagement was immediately followed by severe blasts claiming 12 lives at Srinagar. This is being carried forward by terror strikes in Kashmir and threats of large-scale violence on the occasion of India’s Independence celebration on August 15 in other parts of the country. Back to square one? Simultaneously, `proactive' security exercises by the Government are tightening their grip on the hapless Kashmiri people after about a week’s respite. The peace palaver actually represented an interface of about an hour to discuss the modalities of discussing the modalities of the talk. Apparently the situation may be seen to have come back to square one. But the realities are different. Many hidden dimensions have come to the surface during this interlude. The most important was the visible yearnings for peace of the long suffering Kashmiri people, then, shades of difference not only between the home-based and Pakistan-based militants, but also along the spectrum on the either side - indeed, it is evident that a feeling of despondence has crept in the ranks of some segments of home-based militants - and finally, the panic among the Pakistani decision makers at the first hint of prospect of peace as was evident in the most brutal massacre on the day of the scheduled beginning of the parley. Lack of coordination On the Indian side also the outcrop of comment and analysis in the media and public forums brought out not only the vast scale of interest in the solution of the Kashmir imbroglio but also the wide range of suggestions from the withdrawal from the Valley to the declaration of the war against Pakistan. Significantly, no one except the lunatic binge of the RSS-BJP spoke of war, but a large segment showed a mood of reconciliation. The ruling circles, unfortunately, revealed not only a lack of coordination at the topmost levels but also a deplorable deficiency in home work and a lot of confusion and amateurism. Is it really conceivable that, as the Prime Minister and the official spokespersons suggest, the Kashmir question can be resolved without the direct exchanges with Pakistan? In the last analysis, however, no meaningful advance can take place in this field without a resurgence of the secular and democratic culture in the Indian mainland, strong enough to shake up the pro-Pakistan fringes of the Kashmiri people and win a measure of goodwill of the, however limited today, democratic bases in Pakistan, who can hopefully hold in leash the violence-prone ultras in their country! Ajit Roy