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MONSUN nummer 1 (Bilaga till SYDASIEN
nr 3/1999)
Syed Talat Hussain
The Sub-continent's
Nuclear Season has passed
The Sub-continent's summer season should be re-named
nuclear season. While last May the region was clouded by mini mushrooms
of ten nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan, this time round a month
early though there has been a virtual missile rain. India first tested
Agni-II, an imprved and more accurate version of medium range nuclear
capable Agni-I which was responded to by Pakistan which launched its Ghauri-II
and Shaheen-I, both nuclear capable, medium and short-range missiles.
India also tested another missile Tirshol which showed its accuracy when
it hit a pre-set target in the air.
Obviously a missile mind-set has set in both countries.
Pakistan says that it has concluded ”only for the time being” its missile
experiments, while India has always kept its missile option open. This
means that in the future there can be more missile tests. The most complicated
part of the present India-Pakistan missile development is that it locks
them into a missile race. This issue happens to be the topmost concern
of the world, particualrly for the Americans, in the sub-continent. Even
more imporant it is for the people of the sub-continent whose majority
lives truly backward lives. The issue's immediacy and urgency revolves
around the fact that it is a harbinger of war in the future.
India wants to build a formidable war machine as part of its larger effort
to get recognised as a major power and Pakistan, its smaller neighbour
does not want to be placed in a position where it is totally overwhelmed
by India's power. While India sees its missiles as an imporant detail
of the comprehensive policy script of a great power status, Pakistan sees
them as critical weapons of survival, of defence and offense. For Pakistan
missiles are the short-cut to meeting the growing might of the Indian
war power.
Seen in this context it appears predictable that on the missiles front
both India and Pakistan will be caught in a sort of a race, with India
determining the pace and rythem of it. The second factor which will see
distrubing trends of growth and race on the missle front is that both
India and Pakistan are not bound by any international treaty not to build
weapons. The most imporant international document on missiles happens
to the Missile Technology Control Regime, which does not quite apply to
India and Pakistan. India does not get affected by it because MTCR only
deals with missile technology which relates to export of missile technology.
India has always maintained that its missile programme is indigenous and
therefore outside the purview of the MTCR. Pakistan has been in the past
affected by the MTCR because of its alleged links with China and North
Korea, two countris which the West says hav been supplying it missile
technology. But now Pakistan has got enough missile technology and know-how
and tested missile designs and it does not have to worry about getting
hurt by MTCR. It can also can now rely on this technology which is ndigenous
and further develope it. Realising the importance of this fact, Pakistani
authorities cearly told Strobe Talbott, US Deputy Secretary of State,
during his latest visit to the sub-continent that they would not halt
their missile programme and will reserve the right ”to change, modify,
enhance, and diversify” their missile- capability.
A pointer towards the future direction of missile development in India
and Pakistan has come in the shape of credible reports that both are working
to improve the quality and quantity of their missile stockpiles. Some
details of this work are already available and these point to the third
future trend, which is sophistication of missile technology in the hands
of India and Pakistan. The latest proof of this fact has come in the shape
of Agni II which has two characteristics: one it has an enchanced range
of 2500 kms and secondly it is solid fuel which means it is more powerful
and quicker to be put in a state of readiness. Pakistan's Saheen 1 which
has a range of 750 kms and is also solid fuel. It is a ready-for- launch
sort of a missile. Ghauri-II though is lequid fuel has a greater range,
2300 kms, and can carry, 1000 payload. Connected with these issues is
the fourth trend which is that given the likely escalation in the missle
race, and given the US anxiety over the issue, there will be greater pressure
on India and Pakistan from Washington on the score which might mean more
complications in their bilateral relations. The US has already imposed
trade sanctions against both countries for their missile misdemeanour.
A further cause to worry is that reports in Pakistani newspapers suggest
that India is planning to test more nuclear devices. These reports are
based on apprehensions that India is going to use its signing of the CTBT
as means to deal with the furore which would be a natural reaction to
its decision to explode further devices. There are no factual basis to
these reports, but then in these matters perception is more imporat than
facts. If the perception deepens in Pakistan that India is planning to
further improve its nuclear capability, the government of Nawaz Sharif
may find itself in a difficult position on how to respond to it. In testing
its missiles in response to India's it has already created a tit-for-tat
policy parameter for itself. How will it break this reaction mould if
India were to test a Hydrogeon Bomb? A perplexing question not only for
Pakistanis, but also for the people of South Asia who deserve a future
more secure than one promised by missiles and nuclear bombs.
Syed Talat Hussain
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